Dive into the electrifying world of NFL predictions with Week 17's Christmas and Saturday matchups – where every pick could redefine playoff destinies and ignite passionate debates among fans. Whether you're a die-hard gambler or just here for the thrills, these straight-up, against-the-spread, and survivor pool selections promise to keep you on the edge of your seat. But here's where it gets controversial: Can a struggling quarterback really doom a team's season, or is there more nuance in these high-stakes games than meets the eye? Stick around as we break it down, one game at a time.
For those of you embracing the excitement of sports betting, I've put together my NFL predictions for this pivotal week. Remember, the team logos represent my choice for the outright winner of each contest, not necessarily who will cover the point spread. At the conclusion of the picks, I'll highlight a few squads I favor for against-the-spread action, which, for beginners, means betting on whether a team will win by more or less than the handicappers' predicted margin – adding an extra layer of strategy to the game. A quick disclaimer: Please take my advice with a grain of salt; my picking record this year has been downright dismal, so this is all in good fun.
This edition focuses solely on the Christmas and Saturday games, and as a bonus, I'll include a non-Eagles rooting guide for each matchup – a way to cheer for or against teams based on how it might affect the Philadelphia Eagles' playoff path, since playoff seeding can be influenced by division rivals and wildcard spots.
Starting with the Cowboys (-7) versus the Commanders in the day's first Christmas clash, the Commanders will have Josh Johnson under center. Let's cut to the chase: Johnson simply isn't cut out to be a reliable NFL quarterback, and his performance against the Eagles last week was a disaster. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' potent offense should dominate the Commanders' weak defense, while Johnson struggles to keep pace. For example, imagine a skilled runner like Prescott exploiting gaps in a porous line – it's a recipe for points.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: Whichever team loses here will likely damage their draft prospects by missing out on playoff experience, but in my view, it doesn't really matter which one falters – both could use the lesson.
Next up in the second Christmas game, the Lions (-7.5) face off against the Vikings, with Max Brosmer starting for Minnesota. No need to complicate matters: I'm siding with the Lions, who remain technically in the playoff hunt (though realistically, their chances are slimming fast). This could be a prime opportunity for Detroit to showcase their depth and keep the dream alive a bit longer.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: If the Lions somehow sneak into the postseason, they might have a better shot at upsetting a top seed like the Packers than we think. Given the Eagles could end up as that second seed, it might be wiser for the Lions to stay out – sparking debate on whether sabotaging rivals is the way to go in the NFC.
The third Christmas matchup pits the Broncos (-13) against the Chiefs, where the Chiefs will turn to Chris Oladokun at quarterback. Once again, simplicity wins: The Broncos should take this one, as Kansas City's makeshift QB situation could open doors for Denver's defense and playmakers to capitalize on mismatches.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: This game's outcome holds no real bearing on the Eagles' future, so root for whoever floats your boat.
Shifting gears to the Texans at the Chargers (-2), we finally get a showdown featuring legitimate starting quarterbacks and two squads with playoff aspirations. The Texans are riding a remarkable seven-game win streak, while the Chargers have notched four straight victories themselves. However, this could be a rough outing for Los Angeles, whose offensive line is plagued by injuries and vulnerable to the Texans' ferocious edge rushers, not to mention their strong secondary that might intercept passes or limit big plays.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: Like the previous game, this one doesn't directly impact the Eagles, so feel free to cheer without constraints.
In the Ravens at Packers (-2.5) contest, the Packers are hobbling toward the finish line but still outclass this surprisingly underwhelming Ravens squad. Green Bay's experience and home-field edge could prove decisive against Baltimore's recent struggles.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: A Packers win would set up an ideal first-round playoff matchup for the Eagles – think of it as a favorable draw in the bracket lottery – so rooting for them here makes strategic sense.
Survivor pick ☠️
I loathe the idea of relying on the Cowboys in a quick-turnaround Thursday tilt, but it's tough to envision them falling to Josh Johnson, particularly with Dak Prescott's unusual determination to suit up (as detailed in this Cowboys.com article: https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/dak-prescott-adamant-about-playing-commanders-giants-i-want-17-games). And this is the part most people miss: Survivor pools hinge on picking winners each week without switching, so one bad choice eliminates you – a high-risk game of endurance.
Here's my survivor journey:
1. Week 1: Eagles ✅
2. Week 2: Ravens ✅
3. Week 3: Bills ✅
4. Week 4: Broncos ✅
5. Week 5: Lions ✅
6. Week 6: Packers ✅
7. Week 7: Chiefs ✅
8. Week 8: Colts ✅
9. Week 9: Rams ✅
10. Week 10: Seahawks ✅
11. Week 11: Patri*ts ✅
12. Week 12: 49ers ✅
13. Week 13: Chargers ✅
14. Week 14: Buccaneers ☠️, but 🙌
15. Week 15: Jaguars ✅
16. Week 16: Texans ✅
17. Week 17: Cowboys
A bit of survivor pool drama to share: I thought I was out in Week 14 when the Buccaneers lost, but I got an incredible reprieve. Every single one of the 14 survivors in my pool picked losers that day, including me with Tampa Bay, plus the Browns and Chiefs. So, miraculously, all 14 advanced! 🙌 It's a wild reminder of how unpredictable these pools can be.
Wishing a Merry Christmas to all who are celebrating – may your holidays be filled with good cheer and perhaps some lucky picks.
• Picks against the spread: Cowboys (-7), Lions (-6), Texans (+2). (For context, ATS betting involves handicapping games with points, turning underdogs into favorites and vice versa – it's a popular way to level the playing field.)
• Eagles picks: 10-5
• 2025 season, straight up: 157-82-1 (0.656)
• 2025 season, ATS: 43-51-1 (0.458)
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 492-427-23 (0.535)
What do you think – is favoring the Eagles' playoff path worth rooting against teams like the Lions, or should we just enjoy the games without ulterior motives? Do my picks align with your instincts, or am I missing something big? Share your thoughts in the comments – I'd love to hear agreements, disagreements, or even your own controversial takes on these Week 17 clashes!
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