The Chicago Cubs are turning up the heat this spring training, and it’s not just the Arizona sun. In a move that’s sparking both excitement and debate, the team has signed free agent outfielder Dylan Carlson to a minor league deal, throwing him into the already fierce competition for the fourth outfield spot. But here’s where it gets controversial: Carlson, once a highly touted prospect, has seen his career take a nosedive since his standout 2021 season. Can he reclaim his former glory, or is this just a depth move for the Cubs? Let’s dive in.
Carlson, now 27, is perhaps best known for being the player the St. Louis Cardinals reportedly refused to trade to the Washington Nationals in a potential Juan Soto deal. His 2021 campaign was impressive, slashing .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs and a 111 wRC+. However, his performance has steadily declined since then. After being traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in July 2024, Carlson’s struggles continued, culminating in a disappointing 2025 season with the Baltimore Orioles, where he posted a .203/.278/.336 slash line and a 74 wRC+.
Despite his recent woes, Carlson’s splits against left-handed pitching offer a glimmer of hope. As a right-handed hitter, he boasts a 113 wRC+ and a .757 OPS against lefties, compared to just an 83 wRC+ and .655 OPS against righties. This suggests he could serve as a strategic backup in center field, giving Pete Crow-Armstrong a break during left-handed pitching matchups. But is that enough to justify his spot on the roster?
Jon Heyman reported that Carlson’s deal could earn him up to $3 million with incentives, including $2 million if he makes the majors. While this isn’t a massive financial risk for the Cubs, it does raise questions about their long-term outfield strategy. Are they betting on Carlson’s potential rebound, or is this simply a move to bolster depth?
Comparing Carlson to fellow minor league signee Chas McCormick, it’s hard not to feel a bit skeptical. McCormick, a former Houston Astros center fielder, seems to have a stronger case for a bench spot on the Opening Day roster. But here’s the part most people miss: Carlson’s age and past success could make him a wildcard in this competition. While I’m not holding my breath for a breakout, I can’t complain about the Cubs bringing in more talent to push their current players.
Speaking of competition, this signing likely means Kevin Alcántara will start the season in Triple-A Iowa. After Owen Caissie’s trade, many assumed Alcántara would secure the fourth outfielder role, but the addition of veterans like Carlson and McCormick has shifted the dynamics. Is this the right move for Alcántara’s development, or are the Cubs risking stunting his growth?
As someone who’s covered the Cubs for over a decade, I’ve seen my fair share of spring training battles. This one, however, feels different. The Cubs are clearly prioritizing depth and competition, but at what cost? Carlson’s signing is a low-risk, high-reward gamble, but it also underscores the team’s uncertainty in the outfield. Do you think Carlson can turn things around, or is this just a depth play? Let me know in the comments—I’m curious to hear your take!
