Get ready for a deep dive into the world of MLB predictions for 2026! We're about to uncover some fascinating insights that could make or break each National League team's season. But first, a bold statement: the fate of these teams rests on a single, crucial statistic. Intrigued? Let's dive in!
Arizona Diamondbacks:
The number to watch is 17. Yes, you read that right! An astonishing 17 different pitchers recorded a save for the Diamondbacks in 2025, setting a new record. This wasn't by design, as injuries and trades disrupted their bullpen strategy. The Diamondbacks finished near the bottom in bullpen ERA and win probability added by relievers. Did they miss their chance at glory after their surprising World Series run in 2023? They led the majors in runs in 2024 but fell short in 2025. Now, they're facing a rotation and bullpen overhaul, with general manager Mike Hazen emphasizing the need for pitching. Will they find their closer and turn things around?
Atlanta Braves:
Here's where it gets controversial... The number 38 represents the estimated runs created by Braves shortstops in 2025, the lowest of any position in the majors. It's a stark contrast to the team's success in other areas. The Braves signed Ha-Seong Kim to take over at shortstop, but his performance in 2025 was underwhelming. If Kim can improve his hitting to match his 2024 numbers, it could add about three wins of new offense. But will it be enough to make up for the team's shortcomings at shortstop?
Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs' position-player WAR ranked first in the league, a significant achievement. But can they maintain this level of performance in 2026? They'll lose Kyle Tucker in free agency, and players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner had exceptional seasons. Crow-Armstrong's 6-WAR season with a sub-.300 OBP is a rare feat, and Hoerner's 6-WAR season with single-digit home runs is even more impressive. These two players could be crucial to the Cubs' division hopes, especially if they can replicate their defensive metrics and hitting performance.
Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2023, but their success was largely due to their starting rotation. The team received just 51 home runs from their outfielders, a significant power deficit. The Reds know they need more power, which is why they pursued Kyle Schwarber. However, their ownership's focus on ticket sales might hinder their ability to acquire the necessary power hitters. As a team, the Reds finished last in average exit velocity, indicating that swing changes won't be enough. They'll likely need to look outside the organization for power upgrades.
Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies had a disastrous 2025 season, tying for the third-most losses since 1900. With a new president of baseball operations, Paul DePodesta, and a new GM, Josh Byrnes, the team is looking to turn things around. But can they? Since 2000, teams that have lost 106 or more games have improved by an average of 14 wins the following season. That would put the Rockies at 57 wins, which feels about right. But can they avoid another disastrous season?
Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers' key number is 30.7, the average weighted age of their position players in 2025, making them the oldest group in the majors. Despite their age, they were still effective, thanks in part to Shohei Ohtani. However, age could catch up to some of their key performers in 2026. The Dodgers have seen a decline in runs scored over the past few seasons, and with players like Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Mookie Betts entering their 30s, regression is a concern. Will the Dodgers boost their offense or get younger to stay competitive?
Miami Marlins:
The Marlins' first basemen had a dismal season, with a major-league-worst 62 RBI. This has been an ongoing issue for the team, with the last 2-WAR season from a regular first baseman coming in 2017. Eric Wagaman, who got the most starts at first base in 2025, is not the answer. The Marlins need to end the revolving door at first base and find a multiyear solution. It's a priority for the rest of the offseason.
Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers hit .279 with runners in scoring position, a key reason for their success in 2025. However, analysts caution that hitting with runners in scoring position isn't a repeatable skill. The Brewers have been consistent in this category over the past few seasons, but can they maintain this level of performance in 2026? Their low strikeout rate doesn't guarantee continued success, as other teams have regressed despite similar rates. The Brewers scored the most runs since 1999 in 2025, but repeating that feat might be a challenge.
New York Mets:
The Mets ranked 27th in the majors in innings pitched by their starting pitchers, which had repercussions for their bullpen. The bullpen struggled over the final four months of the season, and several relievers went down with arm injuries. The Mets will need to rebuild their bullpen from the top down and get more innings from their starters. Will they sign a starter in free agency who can carry a heavier workload, like Framber Valdez?
Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies' big three of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner combined for plus-77 runs created above average, but the rest of the lineup was 38 runs below average. This lack of balance has led to offensive struggles in the postseason. With each player entering their age-33 season, relying heavily on this trio is a risky strategy. The Phillies need to improve their offense in 2026, especially in left field, and they'll need to upgrade on Nick Castellanos in right field.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates had a woeful season at the plate in 2025, scoring the fewest runs in the majors. Their team batting averages have been consistently low since 2020. The problem lies in player development and scouting. The Pirates have acknowledged their need for offensive upgrades, pursuing players like Kyle Schwarber and Josh Naylor in free agency. But will they be able to reel in a big free agent to support their rotation?
San Diego Padres:
The Padres led the majors in bullpen ERA and win probability added, with an excellent depth of relievers. However, repeating this dominance isn't guaranteed. The Padres have lost Dylan Cease and will likely lose Michael King, with Yu Darvish already out for the season. The bullpen will be crucial to their success in 2026, especially with closer Robert Suarez heading to Atlanta. Can they maintain their dominance without their top relievers?
San Francisco Giants:
The Giants ranked 27th in home runs from left-handed hitters, with Rafael Devers hitting 20 of their 52 home runs. Rookie first baseman/DH Bryce Eldridge is the Giants' hope for more power from the left side. The Giants need to find a solution, whether it's through free agency, trades, or developing their own players.
St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals are in a rebuilding phase, with a dramatic decline in fan interest due to a lack of star players. The team hasn't had a 3-win player since 1903, and their last three seasons have been their worst since 1988-1990. The new president of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom, has been clear about his rebuilding goals, and the team is open to trading anyone on the roster. The Cardinals need to develop some stars from their young talent to get back to their winning ways.
Washington Nationals:
The Nationals' pitching staff struggled in 2025, ranking near the bottom in batting average allowed, strikeout rate, and walk rate. New pitching coach Simon Mathews has his work cut out for him. The Nationals didn't excel in any pitching category last season, and with MacKenzie Gore potentially being traded, it will be an uphill battle for Mathews.
And there you have it! A deep dive into the crucial statistics that could make or break each National League team's 2026 season. Will these teams rise to the challenge or fall short? Only time will tell. Let the debates begin! What do you think? Are these predictions spot-on, or do you have a different take on these teams' prospects? Share your thoughts in the comments!
